Author: Sleeping in the Rain
GM, here comes the December Outlook.
Dino coins are not my area of expertise, and it is difficult for me to grasp these ancient coins. This outlook mainly wants to talk to you about some of the directions I am looking at.
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1/ AI Agent
After all the hype about AI Memecoins, AI Agent applications, and infrastructure, it’s time to look further afield.
Let me first talk about my personal feelings⬇️
1. It is difficult for new pure AI MEME to emerge. After all the trials and tribulations, only $GOAT and $ACT are left on Binance (I don’t have any opinion on $TURBO). However, both $GOAT and $ACT are market-made by Wintermute. I believe that everyone on the train is in pain, like me.
2. Improvement of market aesthetics: AI MEME—>AI Agent applications—>More sophisticated AI Agent applications & AI Agent infrastructure.
My thoughts on future development⬇️
1. AI agents with new output forms will be more popular;
For example, the AI Agents currently popular in the market are basically tweeting robots, and everyone is competing more on “content novelty”, such as $AIXBT’s market analysis. As long as you make differentiated and high-quality outputs, the market will pay for it.
Differentiated high-quality output covers two levels:
First, new content formats, where the key is “traffic”, that is, being able to attract enough audiences. Now it’s text content, and we can see new AI Agents exploring and trying video content and podcast content (including $ZEREBRO $LUNA releasing music singles, and $POD doing podcast-related things);
The second is new behavior patterns, such as launching an Agent that can trade memecoin by itself. In the future, we should be able to see more exploration of new behavior patterns (this is why I was optimistic about $FLOWER $LOLA before). If the new behavior pattern produces good results, the market will pay for it.
2. The market will show more demand for AI-related infrastructure;
This is easy to understand, so I won’t explain it in detail. A solid foundation is the foundation for building tall buildings. $VIRTUAL $AI16Z $VVWIFU are representatives of this type of tokens. In addition to these basic coin issuance facilities, you can also pay more attention to the infrastructure that integrates these infrastructures, such as Seraph on Virtuals.
3. The future trend is “Agents that can run independently and collaborate with each other”;
We can already see this trend now, such as what $UBC is currently doing (Agent to Agent), and AI Agents on Virtuals may also develop in this direction in the future. $LUM is the beginning of this type of concept token, it is a cultural meme with no practicality (although some teams have started to do something based on $LUM, I still don’t get their ideas at all).
PS My $LUM is currently in a loss state. This is just a mention and does not represent financial advice.
2/ Ethereum
I personally think that Ethereum will have a major uptrend (referring to the EB exchange rate), but I am not sure when this major uptrend will occur. I still hold the same view as in November⬇️
1. BTC ETF will have a spillover effect;
2. BlackRock and other large institutions are doing RWA on Ethereum, which means that the underlying value of Ethereum cannot be ignored;
3. The rise of the Base AI Agent ecosystem;
Judging from the price performance, tokens such as $ONDO $LINK $UNI $ENS have begun to become strong. This means that the market has begun to focus on Ethereum-related Beta tokens. This is a bullish signal.
As for the choice of Ethereum Beta, there are only three directions:
1. ETH pledge related ($LDO $EIGEN LRT);
2. DeFi&RWA ( $AAVE $UNI $COW $MKR $ONDO $LINK );
3. Meme ($MOG $PEPE $SHRUB). I personally prefer DeFi related ones, and indirectly hold $PENDLE $EIGEN by holding $PNP $EGP.
3/ Public chain war
In the previous Stacks article, I mentioned that the public chain war is about to begin again – in December you can see: 1) Fantom Sonic mainnet is about to be launched; 2) Avalanche9000 mainnet will be launched on December 16; 3) Aptos data growth + institutional adoption + ETP; 4) Stacks introduced sBTC after the Satoshi upgrade to gain more adoption, etc.
Most of the surviving public chains have started to take advantage of the good market and try to make things happen. We should see a new round of Layer1 wars in December and Q1 next year. Don’t forget that there is a new participant in this public chain war: HyperLiquid. From my perspective, $HYPE is not as heavy as we thought, and there are fewer participants/holders in the Chinese community (especially compared to $ACT $PNUT). In the future, $HYPE will have the above expectations.
I think the above mentioned ones are all good. Their common point is “willing to release expectations to drive prices” (my favorite among the old blockchains is Fantom). I will write another article to introduce the updates of Fantom and Avalanche.
In addition to Layer 1, I will pay attention to the two chains $METIS and Base in Ethereum Layer 2. You can pay attention to the project @ScoreMilk on Metis, which is the reason why I pay attention to Metis.
Finally, let me mention Base. Base has a very special tone. When participating, try not to focus on whether its concept is good or not, but whether it meets the needs of Coinbase Cabal. Otherwise, even if the concept is good, it is likely to be a one-off.
4/ Chain Abstraction
Let me briefly mention chain abstraction.
Chain abstraction/intent abstraction is a concept that I am optimistic about, that is, they can lower the entry threshold of blockchain and the complexity of the chain.
In this field, I only look at the product, not the token price. As long as the product is good, the rise and fall of the token price is not that important. In addition, I think chain abstraction/intention abstraction still needs time to improve and develop.
Friends who like this track can pay attention to the @ParticleNtwrk project. Particle is a modular & chain abstraction Layer1 (I have introduced it before), and its core function is to “provide users with a single cross-chain address and interactive front-end through a universal account.”
You can also take a look at the chain abstraction framework of @NEARProtocol.
5/ What else is worth mentioning in December?
1. $IO will announce something this week (remember the three AI musketeers I am optimistic about? $IO $GRASS $TAO);
2. 12.10 $ME TGE (We can see some signs of NFT recovery, I personally think it may be related to Opensea);
3. Coinbase delists $WBTC;
4. For AI infrastructure on Solana, you can pay attention to $SHDW $SNS
5. $HNT is a project I am very optimistic about. I think $HNT will have a relatively good performance in this round (just look at the data of Mobile. Although few people mention it, the number of Mobile users has actually maintained a good growth rate) ⬇️
